> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://custos-org.gitbook.io/custos/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://custos-org.gitbook.io/custos/rollocker/interactive-blocks/prediction-basics.md). # Prediction Basics ## _{Trades & Positions} Trades refer to placing orders for an option to predict the outcome of a event. In Custos, you do **NOT** actually buy or sell shares. Instead, you directly create positions with betting volume. Each position includes an order. ## _{Manage Positions} Once position is created, neither the position nor its associated order can be canceled. If you want to close or offset an existing position, you can create an position in the opposite direction or in other options. Profit and loss are settled based on the volume and the corresponding weight of each position. ## _{Direct Prediction vs. Rollock Prediction} Rollock Prediction and Direct Prediction are two ways to participate in Custos prediction market. Rollock Prediction refers to users creating positions and making predictions by using funds (and any accrued staking rewards) from rollockers. Direct Prediction refers to users creating positions and making predictions without rollocking and from wallet balance. Here are the main differences between two ways:

	Direct Prediction	Rollock Prediction
^{Funding Source}	^{Wallet Balance}	^{Total Rollockings}
^{Need to Rollock}	❌	✅
^{Boosted Earnings}	^0%	^5%
^{Staking Rewards}	^{No staking rewards}	^{The portion not used for prediction generate staking rewards}

In addition to the [Win Multiplier](/custos/rollocker/interactive-blocks/order-driven-dynamic-balanced-algorithm.md), the final share of rewards for each position is also influenced by the funding source used to create the position. Under identical conditions (same entry timing, same amount, same direction, etc.) and provided the prediction is correct, positions created via Rollocker Prediction receive an extra 5% profits than positions via Direct Prediction. {% hint style="info" %} Since stablecoins, such as USDT, do not have a corresponding rollocker, positions created using stablecoins are treated as Direct Prediction. Therefore, there is no boosted profits. {% endhint %} --- # Agent Instructions This documentation is published with GitBook. GitBook is the documentation platform designed so that both humans and AI agents can read, navigate, and reason over technical content effectively. Learn more at gitbook.com. ## Querying This Documentation If you need additional information that is not directly available in this page, you can query the documentation dynamically by asking a question. Perform an HTTP GET request on the current page URL with the `ask` query parameter: ``` GET https://custos-org.gitbook.io/custos/rollocker/interactive-blocks/prediction-basics.md?ask= ``` The question should be specific, self-contained, and written in natural language. The response will contain a direct answer to the question and relevant excerpts and sources from the documentation. Use this mechanism when the answer is not explicitly present in the current page, you need clarification or additional context, or you want to retrieve related documentation sections.